Thoughts on 2023

Happy New Year!
 
I’m glad to see 2022 behind us; it was a very difficult year and I think you would agree. I’m hopeful that 2023 will be a welcome relief from the volatility and uncertainty that we have experienced in 2022.
 
We will be providing to you in the near future a presentation video where I will be discussing our outlook for 2023. We feel it’s important that you understand how we think about the world and how it impacts your portfolio strategy. 
 
The issues that we are mostly concerned about include the following:

• The pace of interest rate increases.
• Challenges on an international basis that will affect the US economy.
• Uncertainty around the depth of a possible recession.
• The direction of technology investing, particularly given the challenge in 2022.

Of all of the issues listed, we believe the primary issue to assess is what the Federal Reserve will do. Everything will likely cascade from their decisions, including whether or not we enter a recession (how deep it might be). Chairman Powell has already suggested the Fed will likely slow the increase in rates, but has left the door open to continue tightening policy. 
 
We will give you our thoughts more in detail over the course of the next couple weeks.