Jobs

One of the things that we look for as an indicator of economic strength is the trajectory of employment in the United States. The numbers that came out today showing that job strength remains strong, suggest fears over a recession may be a bit excessive.

We still do believe the tax cuts will stimulate growth in the economy. It's why we continue to remain underweight duration in fixed income. However, there's an equal concern about tariffs and decision uncertainty will cause economic headwinds for the US economy.

We are at an inflection point and need more data to have a better view of what's ahead for the future. We will continue to monitor the signals.

A recent CNBC report highlighted the jobs numbers. See excerpts below.

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“Job growth proved better than expected in June, boosted by government hiring, as the labor market showed surprising resilience and likely took a July interest rate cut off the table.

Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 147,000 for the month, higher than the estimate for 110,000 and just above the upwardly revised 144,000 in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. April’s tally also saw a small upward revision, now at 158,000 following an 11,000 increase.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February and against a forecast for a slight increase to 4.3%. A more encompassing rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons edged down to 7.7%, the lowest since January.

Though the jobless rates fell, it was due largely to a decrease in those working or looking for jobs.

The labor force participation rate dropped to 62.3%, its lowest level since late 2022, owing to an increase of 329,000 of those not counted in the labor force. The household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a smaller employment gain of just 93,000. The ranks of those who had not looked for a job in the past four weeks swelled by 234,000 to 1.8 million.”

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Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/03/jobs-report-june-2025.html