There’s continuing talk in financial circles that a recession is inevitable in 2019. The concern is that economic growth is slowing, and with the reduced impact of corporate tax cuts, companies will be left to deal with the slowing global economy. It is hard to dispute that challenges are growing...
As you well know, 2018 tax reform adjusted taxation for individual and companies. With the new year, there is now talk about reversing the direction of taxation. This includes adjusting the current level of estate taxation as well as income taxes on high income earners.
Policy issues can affect...
As we start the year, I thought it might be helpful to provide our initial thoughts on our outlook for 2019 regarding the economy and markets. These points will be expanded on in later updates. Still, these updates should give you an idea of how we see the current environment and what we expect...
What are retailers to do in an environment where costs become a significant driver for market share? Companies that fail to adapt will hurdle towards irrelevance which is why you continue to see many retailers struggle. The recent woes of Macy’s, JCPenney, Sears and others highlight the...
I was on a conference call this week and explained to a bright collection of foundation investment committee members why we have chosen to not follow the standard allocation philosophy of having significant assets in foreign domiciled equities. I thought it might be helpful to outline our thinking...
Why have markets lately been trending higher? There are two developments which investors perceive as an overall positive for the US economy.
First, dialogue is occurring between China and the United States in attempt to settle long-held disputes about trade policy. Perhaps more importantly, the...
China’s economy is slowing down, the United States economy appears to be slowing as well, company earnings are being revised downward, and global caution seems to be rising. Is a recession just around the corner?
The short answer is, maybe. While there was significant euphoria related to tax cuts...
I’m in Asia today and writing this brief note at 4:00AM local time Thursday as I monitor what’s happening in financial markets.
The financial world as always remains a confusing mix of fundamentals and emotion that is assessed and monitored by the entire research team at DWM (no matter where we...
Scary
Moments like these are scary. When you read the headlines and listen to the news, there is no shortage of voices saying that the end is near and that cataclysmic disaster looms. I understand that. From time to time, I’m in the media as well and I do my best to try to calm nerves, but it...
I am asked regularly to comment on why I think markets are volatile. The easy answer is China trade and interest-rate policy. This certainly makes sense but is only half the story. The reality is that volatility is more of a systemic issue than many people believe.
Markets are more volatile...
Local markets no longer react to news solely within their particular country. US equities are affected by news from around the world as global interconnectedness continues to accelerate. Economies are now connected on a global basis and that connection will continue to accelerate.
****
There are...
Investors have been concerned about the Federal Reserve’s stated plan to be aggressive in tightening rates. In one day that concern significantly dissipated as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that he believed interest rates were near the Federal Reserve target of “neutral”. This...
